As the global economy slows and trade dynamics shift, India must shift focus from traditional export strategies to building long-term competitiveness through technology, cost efficiency, and domestic capability, says Global Trade Research Initiative ( GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava today.
In an exclusive telephonic interview with ANI, Srivastava said, "The focus should be on lowering production costs, simplifying regulations, and accelerating ease of doing business especially in logistics, compliance, and taxation."
He said that India must adopt a dual strategy: attracting foreign technology through joint ventures while simultaneously investing in reverse engineering and product localization.
"What India consumes, it must also be able to make and export," he added, pointing to sectors like electronics, machinery, and digital technologies.
On the ongoing trade tariff talks with the US, Srivastava said that while "there's been no official announcement yet, both sides have indicated progress," with advanced discussions underway.
India is quietly assessing sectoral risks and preparing to mitigate any fallout by diversifying away from US markets and enhancing domestic competitiveness, he added.
Regarding the UK and EU trade agreements, Srivastava confirmed that the India-UK FTA has been signed and is pending ratification in the British Parliament.
"(The EU deal) is in an advanced stage of negotiation, with most chapters close to closure," he said.
These agreements, he said, would not only open new markets but also enhance investor confidence and supply chain integration with Europe.
Srivastava also pointed to global financial conditions as a factor India must watch closely.
"When the Fed raises rates, money tends to flow back to the U.S., putting pressure on the rupee, widening the current account deficit, and tightening liquidity," he said.
Managing currency volatility and maintaining export momentum amid such shifts, he noted, will require steady macroeconomic management and domestic growth drivers.
He dismissed the view that India is disadvantaged by staying out of blocs like RCEP and CPTPP.
"Nearly 80% of global trade still takes place at non-preferential tariff rates. Rather than rushing to join every bloc, India should focus on improving export competitiveness, logistics efficiency, and ease of doing business," Srivastava said.
On India's strategic direction in a changing global order, he called for an assertive approach.
"India, rather than waiting for global stability, should use this 'no-rules' phase to rebuild the foundations of competitiveness across industry, agriculture, and services," he said.
That includes investments in green and digital innovation, manufacturing scale, and secure supply chains.
Tackling the trade deficit with China will require more than import restrictions. Srivastava stressed the importance of "large-scale reverse engineering, technology adaptation, and supply chain localization" in sectors like electronics, machinery, and chemicals. "Over time, such capability-building will not only narrow the trade gap but also make India a credible global supplier," he said.
He also raised concerns about the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which he said would act as a "carbon tariff" on Indian exports like steel and aluminium starting 2026.
"India should not conclude its trade agreement with the EU until this issue is resolved through fair transitional arrangements and recognition of India's domestic climate efforts," he warned.
To move beyond raw materials and low-value manufacturing, Srivastava urged a coordinated push by both government and industry.
"The government must provide a stable trade policy, faster clearances, and targeted incentives," he said. The private sector, in turn, should invest in R&D, design, branding, and technology partnerships to create globally competitive products.
"In a slower, more fragmented global economy, the winners will be those who build resilience at home while shaping trade on their own terms," Srivastava added.
In an exclusive telephonic interview with ANI, Srivastava said, "The focus should be on lowering production costs, simplifying regulations, and accelerating ease of doing business especially in logistics, compliance, and taxation."
He said that India must adopt a dual strategy: attracting foreign technology through joint ventures while simultaneously investing in reverse engineering and product localization.
"What India consumes, it must also be able to make and export," he added, pointing to sectors like electronics, machinery, and digital technologies.
On the ongoing trade tariff talks with the US, Srivastava said that while "there's been no official announcement yet, both sides have indicated progress," with advanced discussions underway.
India is quietly assessing sectoral risks and preparing to mitigate any fallout by diversifying away from US markets and enhancing domestic competitiveness, he added.
Regarding the UK and EU trade agreements, Srivastava confirmed that the India-UK FTA has been signed and is pending ratification in the British Parliament.
"(The EU deal) is in an advanced stage of negotiation, with most chapters close to closure," he said.
These agreements, he said, would not only open new markets but also enhance investor confidence and supply chain integration with Europe.
Srivastava also pointed to global financial conditions as a factor India must watch closely.
"When the Fed raises rates, money tends to flow back to the U.S., putting pressure on the rupee, widening the current account deficit, and tightening liquidity," he said.
Managing currency volatility and maintaining export momentum amid such shifts, he noted, will require steady macroeconomic management and domestic growth drivers.
He dismissed the view that India is disadvantaged by staying out of blocs like RCEP and CPTPP.
"Nearly 80% of global trade still takes place at non-preferential tariff rates. Rather than rushing to join every bloc, India should focus on improving export competitiveness, logistics efficiency, and ease of doing business," Srivastava said.
On India's strategic direction in a changing global order, he called for an assertive approach.
"India, rather than waiting for global stability, should use this 'no-rules' phase to rebuild the foundations of competitiveness across industry, agriculture, and services," he said.
That includes investments in green and digital innovation, manufacturing scale, and secure supply chains.
Tackling the trade deficit with China will require more than import restrictions. Srivastava stressed the importance of "large-scale reverse engineering, technology adaptation, and supply chain localization" in sectors like electronics, machinery, and chemicals. "Over time, such capability-building will not only narrow the trade gap but also make India a credible global supplier," he said.
He also raised concerns about the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which he said would act as a "carbon tariff" on Indian exports like steel and aluminium starting 2026.
"India should not conclude its trade agreement with the EU until this issue is resolved through fair transitional arrangements and recognition of India's domestic climate efforts," he warned.
To move beyond raw materials and low-value manufacturing, Srivastava urged a coordinated push by both government and industry.
"The government must provide a stable trade policy, faster clearances, and targeted incentives," he said. The private sector, in turn, should invest in R&D, design, branding, and technology partnerships to create globally competitive products.
"In a slower, more fragmented global economy, the winners will be those who build resilience at home while shaping trade on their own terms," Srivastava added.
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